Wednesday, May 29, 2024
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Market Commentary

Updated on May 28, 2024 10:08:20 AM EDT

May’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was released at 10:00 AM ET to start this week’s calendar. The Conference Board announced a surprisingly strong reading of 102.0 that was well above expectations and the first rise after three consecutive monthly declines. Rising confidence means consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations. This usually translates into stronger consumer spending numbers that fuel economic growth. Accordingly, we have to label the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

We also have a Treasury auction taking place today. 5-year Notes are being sold with results set for release at 1:00 PM ET. If the sale draws a strong demand from investors, we may see a minor afternoon improvement to mortgage pricing later today. However, a lackluster interest in the securities could lead to a slight upward revision before closing. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 7-year Notes are sold.

The rest of the week brings us the release of three more relevant monthly and quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest, in addition to a few more Fed speaking engagements before their required two-week quiet period ahead of next month’s FOMC meeting.

Tomorrow morning doesnt have any relevant economic data that we need to be concerned with, but the Fed will post their Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET. This report details economic conditions throughout the U.S. through the eyes of business contacts in each Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If there is a reaction in the bond market or mortgage pricing, it will happen during mid-afternoon hours tomorrow.

Overall, Friday is a good candidate for the most important day for rates due to the potential influence of the PCE inflation indexes within the Personal Income and Outlays report. The calmest day may be tomorrow, especially during morning trading. It would be prudent to keep a close eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as there is the possibility of volatility this week.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2024

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Bentley and Leenher Mortgage Consulting LLC | Ph: (512) 402-0309

6403 Steer Trail | Austin, TX 78749
NMLS# 286468


Bentley and Leenher Mortgage Consulting LLC | Ph: (512) 402-0309

6403 Steer Trail | Austin, TX 78749
NMLS# 286468