Updated on November 30, 2020 10:13:07 AM EST
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for today. The rest of the week has four monthly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to the Fed Beige Book and two congressional appearances by Fed Chairman Powell. Two of those four releases are considered to be highly important and can heavily affect the markets. There is a very strong chance of seeing an active week in the markets and mortgage rates.
Chairman Powell will kick-off this week’s activities tomorrow morning when he speaks before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Coronavirus Aid Act. He is scheduled to appear at 10:00 AM ET, but he often releases his prepared statement before actually starting his testimony. The markets listen carefully anytime he speaks publicly, especially during congressional testimony. That means this event has the potential to be a market-mover, causing noticeable volatility in the financial and mortgage markets. He will do the same before the House Financial Service committee Wednesday morning.
Novembers Institute for Supply Managements (ISM) manufacturing index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October’s reading, which was announced as 59.3. A weaker reading than the expected 57.8 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Anything above 50.0 means that more surveyed business executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. The lower the reading the better the news it is for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes broader economic growth less likely.
Overall, Friday is the best candidate for most important day for rates due to the Employment report being released, but we should see noticeable movement in pricing multiple days, particularly tomorrow. The calmest day may Thursday unless there is a big surprise in the weekly unemployment figures. With such a busy week, watching the markets carefully would be a good idea if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.
©Mortgage Commentary 2020