Monday, May 20, 2019


Updated on May 20, 2019 9:56:32 AM EDT

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that may impact mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. None of the releases are considered key or expected to be a market mover, but one of the reports carries enough importance to heavily affect mortgage pricing if it shows a decent-sized variance from forecasts. We also need to watch for the final corporate earnings reports of the quarter and trade war news as they can directly influence stocks enough to change mortgage rates.

The National Association of Realtors will give us their Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This data will give us a measurement of housing sector strength by tracking resales of existing homes in the U.S. This type of data is relevant because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Current forecasts are calling for rise in home sales between March and April. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a large decline, indicating sector weakness. A large increase in sales could lead to bond weakness and a slight increase in mortgage rates tomorrow morning since a strengthening housing sector raises optimism about general economic growth.

Overall, the best candidate for most active day of the week is Friday since it has the most important economic data (Durable Goods Orders), but Wednesday afternoon could be interesting if the FOMC minutes shows any big surprises. Despite having a small number of economic reports, it is still possible for the markets to make large moves. Therefore, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2019